So did FF get a 5% boost? Maybe, maybe not. One in every 20 polls has an error outside the standard 3% error normally allowed. this could be one of those. Or possibly, Indas weak performance against Ahern came into play. If so why weren't FG the big losers?
Its probably more complex. If labour lost 3 points where did they go? 1 went to the greens, and why not given their strong PPB on the night of the debate. The other two, along with one from FG, one from SF and one from Others went to FF. so FF took votes from everyone, but more took more votes from labour than anyone else.
This I suspect, is from Labour supporters secretly hoping for a FF / labour pact, who are disgusted with the parties association with affable blushirt bumkin, Enda Kenny.
Underneath all this voter volatility lies the vacuum at the heart of the election - the lack of an alternative ideology to the vacuous and irresponsible free market, pro business, fuck the environment and fuck the begrudgers attitude of the four main parties.
The shinners haver also jetissoned almost all of their republican and left wing baggage in the hope of getting mercs under their asses. Not their Northern leadership have anything other than a vague notion of the politics of the south.
So to the Greens. This is a party led by a loser. Decent chap and all that but no political nous. For this reason there will be no green tide in this election. They may make a few small gains, as their independent strategy will allow them get transfers from everybody. This is none the less a party to watch out for. It is a party with beliefs, a party that maintains a left wing vision, and a party that can become the leading party of the left. Eamonn Ryan is the man who can bring them there.
His performance on "A Week in Politics" yesterday was most impressive. He presented Green policies and Green strategies with clarity, conviction and determination. He was much more impressive than Dermot Ahern and the FG guy (I can't even remember who he was) on the same show. Eamonn Ryan appears to have the potential to provide the vision and leadership necessary to unite and rally the dissillusioned and fragmented left, to the point where they could be a major force in Irish Politics.
It is worth alos pointing out that the Left Bloc has growns substantially in the last 30 years from about 12% -15% when the Labour Party was essentially the sole standard bearer to about 30% today (Labour `12%, Sinn Fein 10% Greens 6% Socialists and Other Left 2%)
Watch this space.
Monday, 21 May 2007
Wednesday, 16 May 2007
Greens eaten by FG, Labour
All the commentators predicted a big rise in support for the greens. Instead we see a continuing fall off in support with Labour and FG the key beneficiaries. There are a number of reasons for this
1. Trevor Seargeant, while clearly a decent person is a useless leader, looking like an overaged footballer with his ludocrusly wide tie-knot (is he copying Jim McDaid) and his bizarre pontifications re coalition options. His communication skills are limited, as demonstrated by the speech that he shouted at his party's conference earlier this year.
2. Amazingly, a failure to adequately play the green card. It's climate change, stupid. All educated people with their critical faculties intact realise that plans to build new motorways, airports etc are nuts. We must minimize road transport. Yet the greens are backtracking and trying to move to the "centre" on this issue. When the PDs and the "pro growth at all costs" nutters criticize the greens their fightback tends to be to deny the criticism rather than to paint an alternative vision.
3. John Gormly, their No. 2 is not all that impressive either
4. People do not yet have a sufficiently clear view of where they stand on the political spectrum. They are a left wing party and they should be clear about that and proud of it.
5. They are too middle class. The green need to organise in working class areas and go after the votes of the plain peole of Ireland.
Inda Kinny
Despite the polls I don't think Inda will necessarly be next Taoiseach. I still expect a hung Dail. Fine Gael will not pick up all the seats they lost in 02 as theur constituency management is poor. Also their is always the danger that people will realize that Kenny is a closed conservative (notice his pride in his blueshirt and his concessions, on bended knee, to rome re abortion.
Brian Cowen
Recieved wisdom says Brian will be next FF leader, possibly next Taoiseach. I doubt it. He is too rough around the edges, his aggressive style is alienating voters. Notice how the FF slide in polls coincides with berties disappearance into the "Hall of Fame" for failed politicians, and Cowens consequent prominence on radio and TV as the alpha dog of Fianna Fail.
Bertie Ahern made a big mistake by timing the election to coincide with all the hoo ha re the North. Everyday sees him more closely associated than ever with yesterdays men. Ian Paisly. Tony Blair. Now even Bill Clinton. It has all the go of a long drawn out and fond farewell for Bertie Ahern.
Pat Rabbitte
Always lokks like the man in charge when pictured with Enda. Would that Michael McDowells fears about labour were true!
1. Trevor Seargeant, while clearly a decent person is a useless leader, looking like an overaged footballer with his ludocrusly wide tie-knot (is he copying Jim McDaid) and his bizarre pontifications re coalition options. His communication skills are limited, as demonstrated by the speech that he shouted at his party's conference earlier this year.
2. Amazingly, a failure to adequately play the green card. It's climate change, stupid. All educated people with their critical faculties intact realise that plans to build new motorways, airports etc are nuts. We must minimize road transport. Yet the greens are backtracking and trying to move to the "centre" on this issue. When the PDs and the "pro growth at all costs" nutters criticize the greens their fightback tends to be to deny the criticism rather than to paint an alternative vision.
3. John Gormly, their No. 2 is not all that impressive either
4. People do not yet have a sufficiently clear view of where they stand on the political spectrum. They are a left wing party and they should be clear about that and proud of it.
5. They are too middle class. The green need to organise in working class areas and go after the votes of the plain peole of Ireland.
Inda Kinny
Despite the polls I don't think Inda will necessarly be next Taoiseach. I still expect a hung Dail. Fine Gael will not pick up all the seats they lost in 02 as theur constituency management is poor. Also their is always the danger that people will realize that Kenny is a closed conservative (notice his pride in his blueshirt and his concessions, on bended knee, to rome re abortion.
Brian Cowen
Recieved wisdom says Brian will be next FF leader, possibly next Taoiseach. I doubt it. He is too rough around the edges, his aggressive style is alienating voters. Notice how the FF slide in polls coincides with berties disappearance into the "Hall of Fame" for failed politicians, and Cowens consequent prominence on radio and TV as the alpha dog of Fianna Fail.
Bertie Ahern made a big mistake by timing the election to coincide with all the hoo ha re the North. Everyday sees him more closely associated than ever with yesterdays men. Ian Paisly. Tony Blair. Now even Bill Clinton. It has all the go of a long drawn out and fond farewell for Bertie Ahern.
Pat Rabbitte
Always lokks like the man in charge when pictured with Enda. Would that Michael McDowells fears about labour were true!
Monday, 14 May 2007
Animal Cowen Blugeons Opposition
Thirteen pages. Reciepts. Suitcases of £20 notes of mixed nationalities. Curious currency coincidences. An option to buy. Money, as Fr. Ted might say, "resting" in Celia Larkins account. Lashings of self pity and an array of accusations about plots hatched in a west galway hotel.
The sorrowful mystery of the five things Bertie was told would happen must now join the glorious mystery of the third socialist in Aherns Stations of the Cross.
Perhaps the last supper involved a meeting with Frank Dunlop, Owen O'Callaghan and a US business man just weeks before the stone blocking the entrance to St. lukes grotto was rolled back to reveal a briefcase stuffed with cash.
Anyway its great that Bertie cleared all that up. We now know that he is a simple man with simple tastes and a straightforward approach to personal finance.
Wobbler McDowell has firmed up. He has worked out which side his bread is buttered on. He needs tha transfers so Ahern and FF are absolved of all sin.
One of the most interesting aspects of this affair is the new prominence given to Cowen, man of thunder. Cowen brings a fierce aggression to the business of politics that has been absent in the years of consensus since the end of Irelands culture wars in the mid 90's. In todays attack on Richard Bruton (RTE news at one) he came across as bad tempered, intolerant , sanctimonious and perhaps even a bit thick. Bruton did his best, but came accross as the skinny be-spectacled weakling confronting the bully with his high pitched ripostes.
How will this "Animal " style play with the electorate? My guess is it helps polarise things amongst committed party supporters. it will be morale boosting for FF'ers, but also for the opposition who will want to fight back. It will further alienate the 4 in 10 who don't vote.
Why should they vote. The main blocs are only playing at democracy. All have what these days pass for centrist policies, right wing on the economy, liberal on personal morality and uncaring on poverty.
Meanwhile, in the inner cities, in the suburban wastelands surrounding Quarryvale, in broken down farmstead's in Connacht - in the places where the celtic tiger never stalked, talk is of just one thing. The second coming of the third socialist.
The sorrowful mystery of the five things Bertie was told would happen must now join the glorious mystery of the third socialist in Aherns Stations of the Cross.
Perhaps the last supper involved a meeting with Frank Dunlop, Owen O'Callaghan and a US business man just weeks before the stone blocking the entrance to St. lukes grotto was rolled back to reveal a briefcase stuffed with cash.
Anyway its great that Bertie cleared all that up. We now know that he is a simple man with simple tastes and a straightforward approach to personal finance.
Wobbler McDowell has firmed up. He has worked out which side his bread is buttered on. He needs tha transfers so Ahern and FF are absolved of all sin.
One of the most interesting aspects of this affair is the new prominence given to Cowen, man of thunder. Cowen brings a fierce aggression to the business of politics that has been absent in the years of consensus since the end of Irelands culture wars in the mid 90's. In todays attack on Richard Bruton (RTE news at one) he came across as bad tempered, intolerant , sanctimonious and perhaps even a bit thick. Bruton did his best, but came accross as the skinny be-spectacled weakling confronting the bully with his high pitched ripostes.
How will this "Animal " style play with the electorate? My guess is it helps polarise things amongst committed party supporters. it will be morale boosting for FF'ers, but also for the opposition who will want to fight back. It will further alienate the 4 in 10 who don't vote.
Why should they vote. The main blocs are only playing at democracy. All have what these days pass for centrist policies, right wing on the economy, liberal on personal morality and uncaring on poverty.
Meanwhile, in the inner cities, in the suburban wastelands surrounding Quarryvale, in broken down farmstead's in Connacht - in the places where the celtic tiger never stalked, talk is of just one thing. The second coming of the third socialist.
Tuesday, 8 May 2007
Tuesday May 8th
Well well well. Bertie and McDowell are best friends again. Harney has confidence in the Taoiseach.
I thonk we'll find in due course, sometime next week, perhaps, that the Taoiseach will have "legal advice" that he shouldn't make a statment but should wait for the tribunal. Mcdowell will "respect" this.
After the last weekends PD hissyfit a damage limitation exercise is underway. I don't think FF have been damaged, but the PDs certainly have - a major error of judgement was made and the electorate will punish them for it.
I told Enda to stay out of it (not that anyone reads this blog) but he wouldn't and he went and put his foot in it. A minor error of judgement, that does, however, show that Enda is not the asset FG like to think he is. He is coming across as a blueshirt gobshite and if he wants the job he should shut up, smile a lot and try to look presidential.
Pat Rabbitte so far is playing his cards well, as is the joint green leadership of Sargent and Gormley.
Meanwhile the Shinners have taken over the North in an "Alliance for Bigotry" with Ian Paisley.
With the shinners ditching their faux leftist economic policies for the current rightist reactionary orthodoxy, nothing now bars them from entering an alliance with FF down south.
If numbers add up this is surely more likely than an FF Labour alliance. I'm sure SF won't be too worried about Berties personal finances given their own history of 2fundraising" etc. Bertie can justify such a move by simply saying that SF have got rid of their more offensive (to Bertie) policies.
Next poll should show a bounce for Bertie, but still all to play for.
Well well well. Bertie and McDowell are best friends again. Harney has confidence in the Taoiseach.
I thonk we'll find in due course, sometime next week, perhaps, that the Taoiseach will have "legal advice" that he shouldn't make a statment but should wait for the tribunal. Mcdowell will "respect" this.
After the last weekends PD hissyfit a damage limitation exercise is underway. I don't think FF have been damaged, but the PDs certainly have - a major error of judgement was made and the electorate will punish them for it.
I told Enda to stay out of it (not that anyone reads this blog) but he wouldn't and he went and put his foot in it. A minor error of judgement, that does, however, show that Enda is not the asset FG like to think he is. He is coming across as a blueshirt gobshite and if he wants the job he should shut up, smile a lot and try to look presidential.
Pat Rabbitte so far is playing his cards well, as is the joint green leadership of Sargent and Gormley.
Meanwhile the Shinners have taken over the North in an "Alliance for Bigotry" with Ian Paisley.
With the shinners ditching their faux leftist economic policies for the current rightist reactionary orthodoxy, nothing now bars them from entering an alliance with FF down south.
If numbers add up this is surely more likely than an FF Labour alliance. I'm sure SF won't be too worried about Berties personal finances given their own history of 2fundraising" etc. Bertie can justify such a move by simply saying that SF have got rid of their more offensive (to Bertie) policies.
Next poll should show a bounce for Bertie, but still all to play for.
Sunday, 6 May 2007
Wobbler McDowell
So after a weekend of frenetic speculation, that paragon of self righteousness, wobbler McDowell, is about to once again change his mind and stick with Government for another few weeks anyway.
He wobbled in October and now he has wobbled in May. In this he has displayed spectacularly poor political judgement that must raise questions in the public mind about his fitness for office.
Up untill just hours ago McDowell was planning to walk out of Government because of concerns about conflicting accounts from Bertie Ahern about his personal finances. If they have been misled, that certainly would undermine trust in Government, but as I have already observed in politics timing is everything. The PDs in their own interest would have been better to let the story die, afterall the FF/PD coalition won't be reelected, and airing the issue mid campaign is guarantted to do them rather than FF serious damage.
Fianna Fail is the party of strokes, cute hoors and sneaking regarders. Their base fully understands Berties actions. Cash transactions are often a way of life for this demographic, and as long as lovable Bertie isn't found "in bed with a dead girl or a live boy", he'll be ok with his electorate.
McDowell however sets himself up as a paragon of moral rectitude. Last night he marched his troops up the mountain to the moral high ground. Parlon surveyed the view from the hill top and saw the electorate breaking their holes laughing at the pd stormtroopers and shouted run!, run! run for your votes!
So the walkout became a demand for a statement.
Recent histroy is repeating itself, this time as farce. The PDs will be the biggest losers.
The opposition would be best advised to stay out of this domestic squabble.
He wobbled in October and now he has wobbled in May. In this he has displayed spectacularly poor political judgement that must raise questions in the public mind about his fitness for office.
Up untill just hours ago McDowell was planning to walk out of Government because of concerns about conflicting accounts from Bertie Ahern about his personal finances. If they have been misled, that certainly would undermine trust in Government, but as I have already observed in politics timing is everything. The PDs in their own interest would have been better to let the story die, afterall the FF/PD coalition won't be reelected, and airing the issue mid campaign is guarantted to do them rather than FF serious damage.
Fianna Fail is the party of strokes, cute hoors and sneaking regarders. Their base fully understands Berties actions. Cash transactions are often a way of life for this demographic, and as long as lovable Bertie isn't found "in bed with a dead girl or a live boy", he'll be ok with his electorate.
McDowell however sets himself up as a paragon of moral rectitude. Last night he marched his troops up the mountain to the moral high ground. Parlon surveyed the view from the hill top and saw the electorate breaking their holes laughing at the pd stormtroopers and shouted run!, run! run for your votes!
So the walkout became a demand for a statement.
Recent histroy is repeating itself, this time as farce. The PDs will be the biggest losers.
The opposition would be best advised to stay out of this domestic squabble.
Thursday, 3 May 2007
May 3rd
Bertie comes out fighting
In the left corner we had Vincent Browne, in the right Bertie Ahern. For once Bertie decided to answer Vincents questions. The crowd cheered Bertie's robust but meaningless responses. Fianna Fail feel they have turned a corner. I think they probably have. Berties style was good. Yet one is left with the disturbing image of a briefcase with £30k in cash handed to Bertie by a businessman three days before he was to become Taoiseach....
We have a forgiving and forgetting electorate. Bar new revelations, Bertie may even get a bounce....
Bertie comes out fighting
In the left corner we had Vincent Browne, in the right Bertie Ahern. For once Bertie decided to answer Vincents questions. The crowd cheered Bertie's robust but meaningless responses. Fianna Fail feel they have turned a corner. I think they probably have. Berties style was good. Yet one is left with the disturbing image of a briefcase with £30k in cash handed to Bertie by a businessman three days before he was to become Taoiseach....
We have a forgiving and forgetting electorate. Bar new revelations, Bertie may even get a bounce....
Wednesday, 2 May 2007
Tuesday, 1 May 2007
Change is in the air.
Things don't look good for Bertie. Down in the Polls, haunted by digouts, he finds himself in a bit of a hole, looking for a ladder with nothing but shovels in sight.
Luck is everything in an election and timing is everything in luck. The dawn raide on the Aras was ill judged leaving cynics to speculate that it was an exercise in news mangement viz the Tribunal which has had to postpone its work. Having an election while 40,000 nurses are on strike and the health services is in crisis is unlucky. that the campaign should coincide with major roadworks at the red cow and on the N7 will also alienate communters from the west Dublin and Kildare constiuencies.
His photo op next week may well backfire. Tony Blair is old hat and Bertie is tattered hat. "Yesterdays Men" is a useful soundbite for any anti FFers out there.
Inda looks very presidential in his new posters. His "issues" posters have robbed red from labour and green from the greens in a subliminal message of rainbow unity.
Labour are a party in need of renewal. Their embrace of Fine Gael will as ever be disasterous for the party. They will continue to lose support on the left to the shinners and the greens and on the right to a resurgent FG.
The Greens will get a significant boost from the publication of the next Climate Change report later this month and are in the meantime carving out a significant position on the centre left.
Sinn Fein will improve 1st preferences and get significant transfers from FF and elsewhere for the first time.
Todays prediction:
FF 62
FG 55
Labour 18
Sinn Fein 9
Greens 10
PDs 4
Independents 7
Next Govt: 3 party Rainbow with one or two independents
Things don't look good for Bertie. Down in the Polls, haunted by digouts, he finds himself in a bit of a hole, looking for a ladder with nothing but shovels in sight.
Luck is everything in an election and timing is everything in luck. The dawn raide on the Aras was ill judged leaving cynics to speculate that it was an exercise in news mangement viz the Tribunal which has had to postpone its work. Having an election while 40,000 nurses are on strike and the health services is in crisis is unlucky. that the campaign should coincide with major roadworks at the red cow and on the N7 will also alienate communters from the west Dublin and Kildare constiuencies.
His photo op next week may well backfire. Tony Blair is old hat and Bertie is tattered hat. "Yesterdays Men" is a useful soundbite for any anti FFers out there.
Inda looks very presidential in his new posters. His "issues" posters have robbed red from labour and green from the greens in a subliminal message of rainbow unity.
Labour are a party in need of renewal. Their embrace of Fine Gael will as ever be disasterous for the party. They will continue to lose support on the left to the shinners and the greens and on the right to a resurgent FG.
The Greens will get a significant boost from the publication of the next Climate Change report later this month and are in the meantime carving out a significant position on the centre left.
Sinn Fein will improve 1st preferences and get significant transfers from FF and elsewhere for the first time.
Todays prediction:
FF 62
FG 55
Labour 18
Sinn Fein 9
Greens 10
PDs 4
Independents 7
Next Govt: 3 party Rainbow with one or two independents
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