Change is in the air.

Things don't look good for Bertie. Down in the Polls, haunted by digouts, he finds himself in a bit of a hole, looking for a ladder with nothing but shovels in sight.

Luck is everything in an election and timing is everything in luck. The dawn raide on the Aras was ill judged leaving cynics to speculate that it was an exercise in news mangement viz the Tribunal which has had to postpone its work. Having an election while 40,000 nurses are on strike and the health services is in crisis is unlucky. that the campaign should coincide with major roadworks at the red cow and on the N7 will also alienate communters from the west Dublin and Kildare constiuencies.

His photo op next week may well backfire. Tony Blair is old hat and Bertie is tattered hat. "Yesterdays Men" is a useful soundbite for any anti FFers out there.

Inda looks very presidential in his new posters. His "issues" posters have robbed red from labour and green from the greens in a subliminal message of rainbow unity.

Labour are a party in need of renewal. Their embrace of Fine Gael will as ever be disasterous for the party. They will continue to lose support on the left to the shinners and the greens and on the right to a resurgent FG.

The Greens will get a significant boost from the publication of the next Climate Change report later this month and are in the meantime carving out a significant position on the centre left.

Sinn Fein will improve 1st preferences and get significant transfers from FF and elsewhere for the first time.

Todays prediction:

FF 62
FG 55
Labour 18
Sinn Fein 9
Greens 10
PDs 4
Independents 7

Next Govt: 3 party Rainbow with one or two independents